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September 1, 2005
:: Unforseeable Future of Hurricane Season
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Satellite image of Katrina as she made landfall, courtesy NOAA |
Above, next to the image of Katrina, is the remaining list of names that the National Hurricane Center/NOAA will use this year if tropical storms continue to erupt. Keep in mind that hurricane season extends into November! 2005 has been unparalelled in recent history for the number of named storms by this point in the season.
As I write this post, tropical depression 14 has formed in the Central Atlantic. Although it is predicted to move northward and dissipate, another tropical wave has moved west of the Cape Verde islands, and is being watched by forecasters to see if it will become T.D. 15, or possibly a named storm. To further anticipation, some researchers are watching the shortwave trough, and weak cold front currently pushing through the midwest and approaching the eastern seaboard. Some computer models are suggesting tropical cyclone development off the Carolinas if the "eddying" effect of the front causes things to spin up over the Gulf Stream.
What does it all mean? Global warming has not been pinned down yet by researchers, who have been starting to shy away from global warming claims, and hedging bets on a global cooldown instead. For the meantime, researchers point to a roughly 10-15 year cycle of the tropical storm activity as a pattern that has fit right for the last few years of devastation. Climatologists say that we can expect heightened hurricane activity for the next 5-8 years. Check out Wunderground co-founder Dr. Greg Master's article on hightened hurricane activity here.
Posted by pierre at September 1, 2005 1:28 PM
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